In a tweet dated January 11, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC/USD could see a “decent rally” this year.
The chart raises the potential for a serious rally for Bitcoin
Analyzing Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles around halving events, Rekt Capital has drawn attention to the fact that 2023 is the deadline for the next “bottom candle”.
With the next halving scheduled for 2024, the next 12 months should see a price floor, followed by a rally as the event approaches.
Thus, 2024 constitutes the fourth candle in the current Bitcoin cycle, and 2023 the third candle.
“Candle 3 is a bottom candle in the four-year BTC cycle. But it could still make a nice rally,” Reckt Capital commented.
The area for Bitcoin to take traders by surprise is evident in the four-year chart.
“Candle 3 in 2015 saw a move of +234%. Candle 3 in 2019 saw a move of +316%.”
“Candle 3 in 2023 could see a stronger uptrend than most people think.”
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital / Twitter
Some other observations on the chain led market participants to similarly optimistic conclusions.
Among them, the percentage of unrealized losses held by Bitcoin workers continues to achieve a “capitulation” stage, according to a custom indicator that monitors the status quo.
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“These were the most profitable times for bitcoin accumulation. The net unrealized profit/loss is still in deep surrender terror,” the Game of Trades trading and analytics account wrote on Twitter Jan. 11.
Bitcoin unrealized net gain/loss ratio infographic. Source: Games of Trades / Twitter
Analysts warn that the overall climate of 2023 echoes the GFC
However, given the current macroeconomic environment, it may take a lot of luck to emerge from the ashes when it comes to pent-up crypto-asset prices.
Related: BTC Price Highs in 3 Weeks Meet US CPI – 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
With the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates as inflation subsides, concerns are now focused on the long-term political implications.
What could hurt sentiment next, say analysts, including Reventure Consulting founder and CEO Nick Girley, is not inflation, but deflation.
Commenting on a chart of savings trends in the United States, Gerley warned on January 10 that conditions are in place for a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis in relation to a recession.
“The savings rate just collapsed to 2.2%, which is the lowest it has ever been,” he revealed.
It means Americans are running out of money. The last time it was this low was 2006-07. just before the GFC. Warning of a major recession. Expect a significant drop in consumer spending in 2023.”
Illustrative graph of the personal savings rate in the United States. Source: Nick Gerli / Twitter
January 12th will see the first US Consumer Price Index (2023 data release), and there are already bets on how Bitcoin will react.