Bitcoin (BTC) wrapped up its worst August performance since 2015 after the monthly candle closed 13.9% lower.
BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Weekly candle “doesn’t look good”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm that BTC/USD ended the month at $19,990.
The August close was a blow to the bulls’ efforts to stabilize the spot, with only the second monthly candle’s closing below the $20,000 mark (depending on the exchange used) since late 2020.
BTC/USD 1 month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Maintaining the June close as the lowest price on the monthly chart, the performance led traders into strongly bearish territory. Among them was Crypto Tony, who warned that the stage was set for deeper losses ahead.
He told his Twitter followers that day that his outlook saw him “leaning toward a big drop-down menu.”
Caleb Franzen, chief market analyst at Cubic Analytics, added that the first weekly September candle is already forming to take bitcoin into the red.
“Bitcoin’s weekly candle is not looking good, although it is still very early in the week,” he cautioned alongside the illustrative chart.
“A long upper wick and selling is objectively a bad sign, if it closes that way. Especially if it turns into a red candle. Something to watch for the rest of the week.”
Others saw more optimistic reversals in the monthly close.
Popular Twitter account Dave the wave highlighted the Moving Average Convergence/Difference (MACD) as anticipating a pullback from the local highs above $25,000, now favoring the bulls’ relief.
Fellow trader Johal Miles reiterated the potential bullish impact of the MACD crossover from mid-August, which however saw no “continuation yet”.
BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: TradingView
New “Historic Bottoms” for the hodl . scale
One on-chain indicator in particular reinforced the feeling that the current bitcoin price levels are meant for accumulation, not selling.
Related: Top BTC Price Warning Appears When 10K BTC Leaves Wallet After 9 Years
Bitcoin’s Hodl Ratio of Realized Value (RHODL), which measures the relative value of currencies that have moved in recent weeks compared to the previous year or two, is now at an all-time low.
This questionable achievement was noted by Philip Swift, the creator of the data resource on the LookIntoBitcoin chain.
“The RHODL ratio is now at historic lows. The prices that were paid in the near term for $BTC are relatively lower than those paid a year or two ago,” he explained.
“A useful way of identifying sentiment is through actual behavior. It shows that the market is against Bitcoin at the moment. Gather.”
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