Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded overnight on August 5 as the recovery of the new trendline opened the door for further gains.
BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
BTC Price Daily Chart Draws a ‘Temporary’ Long Signal
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD rebounding from a local low of $22,400 to add around 4.6%.
The pair reversed direction at major bid support on the main Binance exchange, helping to avoid a further significant loss for the 200-week moving average (MA) at around $22,800.
While this key area remained uncertain for the bulls, the recovery of the 21-period moving average on the daily chart gave a source of in-chain analysis to Material Indicators cause for optimism.
BTC/USD may not raise a long signal at the close of the daily candle, he told his Twitter followers overnight.
However, trader and analyst Rekt Capital has expressed continued caution about Bitcoin’s poor track record of turning the 200-week moving average into solid support for this bear market.
“Historically, BTC has managed to generate significant buy-side interest at the 200-week moving average,” he said:
“But if $BTC fails to retest the short-term moving average, it will likely serve as further evidence that this recovery is just a relief.”
BTC/USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with a 200-week moving average. Source: TradingView
Likewise, trading firm QCP Capital was conservative in its price forecasts, which in its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers that the overall picture was “very mixed.”
Referring to complex macro stimuli, the QCP said that the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve will be a critical factor in moving the market forward. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that he did not reach consensus on the pace and scope of future key rate hikes.
“Economic data globally points to weak growth and the upcoming global recession,” the update said, highlighting upcoming CPI inflation data for July due for release on August 10:
“We continue to believe that the markets will trade sideways and will be sensitive to economic data releases. The US CPI next Wednesday will be the next important indicator to watch.”
The power of Ethereum failed to convince
On altcoins, Ether (ETH) and other high-volume tokens joined in Bitcoin relief are pushing higher.
Related: 3 Key Ether Derivative Metrics Suggest ETH’s $1,600 Support Lacks Strength
ETH/USD is hovering at $1,665 at the time of writing, with ETH/BTC failing to break resistance near the 0.075 mark after a second retest.
ETH/BTC (Binance) 1 day candlestick chart. Source: TradingView
With Ethereum Merge still about a month away, concerns were also growing about the possibility of a controversial hard fork of the network.
QCP continued: “The most immediate and immediate risk in the crypto markets is the ETH consolidation scheduled for September.”
She added that markets “have already started pricing in the possibility of a physical hard fork.”
