Bitcoin (BTC) hit new weekly lows on September 28 as risky assets continued to slide overnight.
BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Trader: “First new lows” before the recovery in the fourth quarter
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $18461 on Bitstamp, down nearly $2000 from the previous day’s high.
The change of direction came in sync with the stocks, which turned red after initially heading marginally higher at the open on Wall Street.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices ended the day 0.25% and 0.25% lower, respectively.
However, Crypto failed to recoup its losses, and while hopes were in the fourth quarter for a more robust recovery, traders were betting the pain would continue first.
The popular Il Capo of Crypto Twitter account appears to confirm that he prefers copying last year’s October performance – which is what earned him the nickname “Uptober”.
He added in his comments that he “expects a rise in the fourth quarter. But at the beginning new lows.”
Meanwhile, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital drew attention to the hurdles Bitcoin needs to overcome on the monthly timeframes.
“Already there is a sharp rejection of Bitcoin at the green level ~ $19,800” he wrote in a tweet about the close of the upcoming monthly candle:
“Continued monitoring in and around this level is expected as $BTC approaches the monthly close. More important will be how the monthly candle actually closes relative to the lower green range.”
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital / Twitter
Rekt Capital added that closing below this green line would mean an exit from the monthly range in place since late 2020.
Bears bet
When discussing when the 2022 bear market will end, opinions differ on the use of data from previous halving cycles.
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Uploading a comparative chart, STACKS Podcast host Luke Martin noted that it’s been 322 days since bitcoin’s last all-time high at $69,000.
After all-time highs in 2017, BTC/USD spent 364 days in a bear market, which indicates that the end may be due if history repeats itself.
Charles Edwards, creator of crypto asset management Capriol, responded, “The timing of the cycle here is optimal.”
Others were less convinced, with TEDTalksmacro drawing attention to the fact that the overall environment wasn’t what it was in 2018, something Martin admitted.
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Luke Martin / Twitter
As Cointelegraph reported, the US Federal Reserve has made no commitment to stop raising interest rates and putting pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, this year.
The opinions and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risks, you should do your own research when making a decision.
