Historically, October has been the best month for Bitcoin (BTC) since 2014, with an average increase of around 20% for the month, said Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and that peak-looking commodities could mean Bitcoin has bottomed out. .
In a Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report released on October 5, McGlone said that while rising interest rates globally are putting downward pressure on most assets, bitcoin is gaining the upper hand compared to commodities and tech stocks like Tesla, noting the report:
“As the waning economic tide turns, we see a tendency for Bitcoin, Ethereum and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index to resume outperforming most major assets.”
McGlone notes that Bitcoin has the lowest volatility ever against the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks global commodity price movements such as gold and crude oil. He notes that historically, bitcoin’s volatility is more likely to recover compared to commodities as the crypto moves toward new heights.
Bitcoin vs. BCOM and Bitcoin 260 Day Volatility vs. BCOM 260 Day Volatility. Source: Bloomberg Crypto Outlook
McGlone suggested that the second half of 2022 could see Bitcoin shift towards becoming a risky asset, like gold and the US Treasury, after low volatility throughout September and a possible rise in commodity prices.
In the past, bitcoin has been closely associated with technology stocks, with its volatility making it a risky asset that traders are more likely to sell in an environment where investors are looking to reduce risk.
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Kaiko Research data released on October 4 supports the view that Bitcoin may move to act as “digital gold,” as Bitcoin’s correlation with gold reached its highest level in more than a year at +0.4 after boosting the US dollar as interest rates rose.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold over the past 12 months. Source: Kaiko
Correlation +1.0 means that the movement between two different assets is synonymous. For example, a 10% increase in gold would be offset by a 10% increase in Bitcoin if the two originals had a correlation of +1.0.
