After a weekly close just above $17,000, BTC/USD seems determined to make the most of stocks and USD weakness.
With the US set to release inflation data for November, the dollar appears to be a key item to watch as BTC price action sparks a recovery from the FTX meltdown pits.
Not everything may be as clear as it seems – miners are facing serious difficulties, the data is showing, and opinions on the stock’s ability to continue rising are far from unanimous.
As the end of the year approaches, will Bitcoin witness a “Santa rally” or will it face new losses in the new year?
Cointelegraph presents five areas worth watching in the coming days when it comes to BTC/USD performance.
Bitcoin Traders Diverge Over ‘Rally Santa’
A slight relief for bitcoin bulls this week comes in the form of a strong weekly close followed by a slight rally to multi-week highs.
BTC/USD reached $17,418 on Bitstamp in the hours after the close, as the pair reached its highest levels since November 11, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/USD 1-day candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
For traders, there is reason to believe that the short-term strength may continue, allowing Bitcoin to head near $20,000.
“No change in my expectations. Still looking at 19K+,” Credible Crypto confirmed to its Twitter followers on December 4.
“Bitcoin USD formed a nice narrow consolidation here after a clean rally on a lower timeframe. It might drop to 16k first to clear these accumulated lows but still expect a continuation after that regardless.”
Meanwhile, fellow trader Dave the Wave put his faith in the Christmas rally ahead, while others, including famous commentator Moustache, said the time was historically right for a recovery.
Comparing the 2022 bear market to previous markets, he made it clear that BTC/USD should now find a bottom, 31 weeks after its last all-time high.
“The Bitcoin bottom should be very close,” he repeated over the weekend.
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Mustache / Twitter
However, not everyone is feeling optimistic. For the Crypto Kingpin, there is room to go to $18,000 before Bitcoin starts to “head down.”
While he did not mention exact downside targets, he described the weekly close as “conflicting”.
“Still convinced for now that this move up on btc is part of an abc w4 correction before making a new $15k lower low in Q12023 where we find a long term bottom,” another popular trader, Bluntz, tweeted after the close. weekly.
Likewise, trader Korinek_Trades is similarly conservative on the lower timeframes, who despite calling for a “big bounce relief” on Bitcoin, conceded that the downside could reach $12,000.
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Korinek_Trades / Twitter
Crypto Voices Caution About Stocks Amid ‘Imminent’ Crash Claim
Next week in macroeconomics marks a prelude to the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, scheduled for December 13th.
Meanwhile, the US PPI and jobless data later in the week will be dates to watch for traders, which traditionally trigger short-term swings at least.
Meanwhile, looking at US stocks, the tone among cryptocurrency traders and others seems tense, despite recent strength in the face of a lower dollar.
The S&P 500 ended the previous week up 1.66%, at 4,071 points.
“Unless we exit 4300 on volume and stay higher, this to me counts as a supported rally.” It could take a few weeks to climb the mind, Crypto Tony warned over the weekend.
An additional tweet revealed doubts about Bitcoin avoiding spillover effects despite stocks significantly underperforming in the wake of FTX.
“This is a very plausible scenario,” Crypto Tony commented alongside the chart.
“If we do indeed see a sustained stock market crash due to high interest, defaults, et cetera, I would expect Bitcoin to follow. Until then, we will simply range in my opinion while there are minimal buyers.”
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Crypto Tony / Twitter
This sentiment echoed the predictions of well-known commentator Nunya Business, who earlier suggested that the SPX might put a “Santa’s march” ahead of the reversal.
The clearest insight into the stock came from Michael A. Jed, acclaimed portfolio manager and author of the investment strategy publication, “The Lead-Lag Report.”
In an extended Twitter briefing on Dec. 3, Jed went further than cautious, telling readers that an “imminent stock market crash” was next.
“My point is that there are delays and the markets have a funny way of surprising the crowd out of nowhere,” read part of one post.