The S&P 500 fell for six straight days and hit a new low for the year so far on September 27, but Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its best momentum, holding well above the June low. This can be a positive sign because the markets that show strength on the way down are the ones that do well in a possible recovery.
US stock markets rebounded strongly on September 28 after the Bank of England announced a bond-buying program and yields on US Treasuries fell from multi-year highs. When this happened, there was a strong buying action in Bitcoin, but BTC was unable to break through the general resistance.
Daily Cryptocurrency Market Indicators. Source: Coin360
A glimmer of hope for cryptocurrency traders is that October has historically been a strong month for bitcoin. With the exception of 2014 and 2018, since 2013, every year since 2013, Bitcoin has closed positive in October, according to Coinglass data.
Although history suggests a recovery in October, traders should be cautious as the macroeconomic environment is unprecedented and remains challenging.
Can bitcoin and altcoins end September on a strong note? Let’s examine the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
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Bitcoin rose above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($19,576) on September 27, but the bulls failed to hold on to the higher levels. This evaporates all intraday profits. Speculators seized the opportunity and tried to push the price below the $18,626 immediate support on September 28, but today’s candles show strong buying at lower levels.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart. Source: TradingView
The positive divergence on the RSI remains unchanged and points to a possible recovery. If the price breaks and continues to move above the 20-day EMA, the probability of a rally towards the downtrend line increases. Bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the price breaks away from the downtrend line, BTC/USDT could fall to the 20-day moving average. A pullback from this level would indicate that sentiment may change from selling on a rally to buying on a dip. If buyers push the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $22,799.
To reverse this bullish bias, the bears need to push the price below $18,125. The pair could then test the June low of $17,622. A break below this support could signal a resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then fall to $14,500.
Ether (ETH) fell sharply from its 20-day moving average ($1,411) on September 27, but bounced off the $1,262 support level on September 28. This indicates that the bears sell on the upswings and the bulls buy on the downswings.
Daily ETH/USDT Chart. Source: TradingView
The ETH/USDT pair is currently stuck between $1250 and $1410. If the bulls push the price above the upper resistance, the pair may rise towards the descending channel resistance line. The bulls must overcome this obstacle to signal a possible trend change.
If the price breaks below the current level or upper resistance level and breaks through the support at $1,250, this indicates that selling pressure is increasing. This can increase the chance of an eruption under the canal. The pair may then fall to the psychological level of $1,000.
BNB / US Dollar
The bulls pushed BNB above the descending channel pattern resistance line on September 27, but failed to break the 50-day SMA ($287). This triggered a massive sell-off and the price fell back below the 20-day moving average ($276).
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The long tail of the September 28 candlestick shows that the bulls have not given up and may make another attempt to break the upper resistance at the 50-day simple moving average. If they can achieve this, it will indicate a possible trend change in the short term. The BNB/USDT pair may first rise to $300 and then try to quickly go up to $338.
On the other hand, if the recovery from the moving averages falls, it will mean that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair can then retest the immediate support at $258.
XRP’s strong rally to $0.56 has recovered to a breakout level of $0.41. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is close to this level and the 20-day EMA ($0.41) is also close. Thus, buyers are more likely to defend the level with all their might.