Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD briefly touched $21,594 on Bitstamp, marking its highest level since Sept. 13.
As bullish impulses continued to hit the chart, reactions remained conservative amid an air of skepticism about the true source of Bitcoin’s return to form.
One such cautious measure came from Michael van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who looked at behavior around a major exponential moving average (EMA) across cryptocurrencies.
Food for thought; the altcoin’s total market cap and market cap are both at the 200-day exponential moving average, while bitcoin barely breaks it without any volume.
“Markets bottomed out, probably, but it does raise the question of whether we will go up from here.”
BTC/USD 1-day candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with 200-day EMA. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, well-known Crypto trader Tony advised “patience” when it comes to buying BTC after more than a week’s rally.
Real-time alerts with the fastest news feed in the crypto market (204 winners in 2022)
“Reached into the high range as expected yesterday. Today we will wait for: – a push up and a retest to confirm a safe buy position while we are up – a push up and a close below the top of the range. The short trigger,” he wrote in an analysis published before the opening.
As Cointelegraph reported, bearish expectations for the future of bitcoin’s price action have accompanied every leg of its rally from two-year lows, with some still convinced a drop to $12,000 is next.
Meanwhile, Cointelegraph readers themselves are becoming more optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects.
Current responses to the latest Twitter poll favor continued gains, with 37% of more than 1,000 users believing Bitcoin is back on its journey “to the moon.”
However, another 22% fear that the current bullish trend could turn into an “all-out collapse”.
Is Bitcoin Back?
Elsewhere, in-chain analytics firm Glassnode suggested a “wait and see” approach while discussing how long the good times might last.
Related: Bitcoin Price Breakout or Bull Trap? 5K Twitter users think
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” researchers looked at the main lines in the sand approximating profitability versus supply.
The Bitcoin Adjusted Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) measure is about to cross line 1 from the bottom, indicating a possible major turnaround. If this line is crossed, dealers will have an overall incentive to sell while making a profit, which could create a supply glut and push the market lower again.
Cointelegraph previously wrote about SOPR hitting a two-year low in mid-November.
“With a surprising 23.3% rally to start the year, a broad cross-section of Bitcoin investors (and miners) has seen their net holdings (and operations) return to profit. This reflects the impact of both the strong price rally, but as Glassnode concluded, the sheer volume of coins that were traded over recent months, resulting in a lower cost basis.”
“With a SOPR test and a profit/loss ratio achieving a breakeven value of 1.0, testing whether the market can hold on to those gains becomes the next big question.”